What the Government Shutdown Means for Mortgage Rates

October 21, 2025 | 3 min read | GuardHill News, The mortgage process
Image of the New York City skyline, where GuardHill Financial is headquartered.

As we enter October, the housing market faces a new layer of uncertainty and opportunity: the current federal government shutdown and the upcoming Fed meeting. While homebuyers and homeowners may feel nervous, it’s important to understand what this means for mortgage rates and the housing market.

October Mortgage Report 

  • The Fed relies heavily on government data to set policy.
  • During a government shutdown, key economic reports and data are delayed or unavailable. 
  • The fed meeting in October will be closely watched. If they signal more cuts that might pull mortgage rates down further.

Fall Housing Trends 

  • Buyers: With fewer competitors in the fall market and sellers more willing to negotiate, October can be a great time to purchase.
  • Sellers: Pricing realistically helps attract qualified buyers in a market slowed by uncertainty.
  • Homeowners: If you’re carrying higher-interest debt, a rate & term refinance or a cash-out refinance could put you in a stronger financial position heading into year-end.

Mortgage Tip of the Month 

Stay proactive during uncertain times. If you’re in the middle of a transaction:

  • Lock your rate; Rates are volatile, waiting might backfire.
  • Get pre-approved NOW; You’ll be ready to act quickly if rates dip further.
  • Consider shorter terms or adjustable rates mortgages; If you plan to sell or refinance within a few years, an ARM or shorter – term loan will lower payments.

We’re Here to Help

Whether you’re buying, refinancing, or advising clients, we can guide you toward the best options for today’s market. At GuardHill, we focus on building strong relationships by offering the best combination of service, products, price, and ease of process—backed by flexible lending options and fast approvals.   

Some Samples of our Recent Closings        

  • $3,000,000 – Los Angeles, CA. Purchase of a primary residence using business bank statements to qualify vested in an LLC.
  • $2,500,000 – New York, NY. Purchase of a new construction condo, using business bank statements to qualify.
  • $2,000,000 – Brooklyn, NY. Purchase of a primary residence co-op using assets to qualify instead of income
  • $1,000,000 – Barnstable, MA. Cash-Out of a primary residence closed as Interest-Only.
  • $500,000 – New York, NY. Purchase of an investment condo qualified using only rental income.

Recent Testimonials

“I’ve been recommending Keith to my buyers for nearly 20 years and there’s a reason Keith is incredibly communicative, knowledgeable, professional, and he gets the job done each and every time. He and his team work diligently and quickly. You cannot overstate how important communication and responsiveness is throughout the mortgage approval process, and Keith and his team are always there for my clients when they’re in need of assistance or advice.”
-E.G.

“We worked with D’Laine to buy our first co-op in NYC and she was great! She helped us find the best rate for us and made sure we had all the information we needed to make decisions. She answered every single phone call and question we had – no matter how annoying or repetitive we were! You can tell she had so much knowledge and experience with all her guidance. Could not recommend her enough!”
– H.S.

“Valerie is a true expert and a pleasure to work with. Navigating the mortgage process can be overwhelming, but Valerie made it feel effortless. She was always available to answer questions, explain options, and provide updates. Her guidance helped us lock in a great rate and close quickly. We felt like we were in the best hands throughout the entire journey.”
-T.F.

“GuardHill has been an invaluable partner throughout my home buying experience. Stephen and his team are incredibly knowledgeable and made themselves available for any questions I had a long the way. Excellent customer service and communication. I would highly recommend GuardHill to anyone looking for great guidance and expertise in the home buying process.”
-L.P.

We worked with Melissa who was a pleasure to work with. She truly went above and beyond for us throughout the whole process. She was approachable and quick to respond to any questions or concerns. We feel very lucky to have heard her during such an uncertain time in the market and fluctuating rates.”
-M.L.